UFC 88 Breakthrough: Preview & Staff Predictions
Time has been hard to come by as of late, but I've managed to fit some in-depth analysis in for some of the upcoming UFC events as we head into September. We start out the UFC's month with a fairly lackluster fight card in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Liddell vs. Evans, Franklin vs. Hamill, and Henderson vs. Palhares aren't blockbuster battles that casual fans will be clamoring over in the hours leading up to the event. Nonetheless, let's take a look at some of the battles we'll see on Saturday night.
Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans
Let's face it… this isn't a main event headlining fight to anyone who follows the UFC adamantly. Chuck Liddell holds wins over some of the best fighters in the world while Rashad Evans has decisioned himself to an 11-0-1 undefeated record. At 21-5, Liddell is arguably one of the top light heavyweights in the world, and he's the UFC's money making public icon to the sport. His status alone with the UFC gives him a shot at redeeming most of his key losses on the way back to the title. Could this fight be one of those redeeming wins that would jolt him back into the title picture? I wouldn't put it past the UFC no matter how much I disagree with it.
Striking is going to be the major difference in this matchup. Liddell is not only a seasoned veteran of the sport, but he's one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Using strafing movements and odd angles to land blows, he'll likely work a ranged striking game while keeping away from Rashad's strengths in the wrestling game.
Evans doesn't have anything to offer in this fight. He can't fight at range with Liddell. He lacks knockout power in the striking game. His wrestling abilities will likely be countered by Liddell's takedown defense, and he'll almost assuredly become mincemeat if he tries to shoot for a takedown with Liddell's sprawl. How can Rashad win this fight? Unless we see a vast improvement and much more dynamic mixture of his skills, Liddell should easily win this fight.
Leland's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via TKO/KO, Round 2
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
Franklin's move to 205 could become an interesting battle on the ground if Hamill's power is as overwhelming as we've seen in some of his past battles. Hamill registers at 6'2” while Franklin comes in around 6'1”. Hamill should technically have the muscle and length to make this an interesting matchup. However, Hamill's striking game is still in a developing stage. Franklin, on the other hand, is seasoned in crushing opponents from the top position. It makes for some contemplating as to how this fight could work itself out.
Franklin's experience and power should help him prevail over a rather green Matt Hamill. Not only is his striking much more seasoned and powerful, but he still has an able ground game to counter Hamill. Franklin will be tough to overpower as well, but Hamill does have the strength to potentially do just that. I wouldn't count on it happening though.
Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO/KO, Round 2
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
I was a bit torn on this matchup when it was first announced to be occurring at UFC 88. Palhares has the potential to become the next Paulo Filho. A powerful submission fighter with improving standup and great transitioning skills, Palhares presents some problems for Henderson. Can he actually submit Henderson? Unless Palhares can prove that his jiu-jitsu is in the arena of the Nogueira brothers or Anderson Silva, I'm definitely leaning toward a “No” answer.
Henderson will have the advantage on his feet with some good striking skills coupled with fantastic power in his hands. Palhares will be looking to push this battle to the floor quickly to use his power grips to submit Henderson. If Henderson doesn't pay attention, he could potentially fall victim to a signature leglock from Palhares. I still expect Henderson to be careful and squeak out a decision win over Palhares.
Leland's Prediction: Dan Henderson via decision
Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
This could potentially create some excitement for fans who have yet to really see what Martin Kampmann is capable of producing. While many fans don't quite remember Kampmann, they will inevitably keep an eye on this dynamic fighter after UFC 88. At one point in his career, he was well on his way to at least battling for a spot at contention until his knees began to fail. A few knee surgeries later, we saw Kampmann back in the Octagon after over a year layoff. What can we expect from Kampmann in this fight?
Look out for his heavy and accurate striking abilities on the feet. A native of Holland, he's been bred in the kickboxing pedigree that so many Dutch fighters grew up with. He has excellent kicks and striking, but he's also picked up some formidable submission abilities along the way. Xtreme Couture's training regiment has likely given him a strong wrestling base from which to pull submissions off with as well.
Marquardt has never impressed me in the Octagon. I felt that the UFC catapulted him into a match with Anderson Silva for the pure enjoyment of fans seeing a destruction in the cage. Defeating some crafty ground veterans in Dean Lister, Joe Doerksen, and Ivan Salaverry is hardly a sign that you're ready for Anderson Silva. I'm also inclined to believe that Marquardt's abilities in the striking game will be his downfall here. Look for Marquardt to eat some strikes, go dizzy, and become submission bait.
Leland's Prediction: Martin “Hitman” Kampmann via submission, Round 1
Quick Picks
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares: Tough fight to pick… Pellegrino has the grit and determination to pound on Tavares for most of the fight, but Tavares definitely has the submission abilities to take out Pellegrino. I am smelling a potential upset here, so betting on Pellegrino might be a great idea. I'll still take the submission abilities in Tavares over Pellegrino's susceptibility on the ground. Tavares via submission, Round 2
Jason MacDonald vs. Jason Lambert: Lambert has been terrible as of late in the striking game, but MacDonald probably won't be bringing too much in the standup. This could be an even matchup with Lambert coming down in weight for the fight. He could potentially weight a lot more than MacDonald come fight time. MacDonald has only lost to some of the top tier Middleweights however, so I'll stick with him in this fight. MacDonald via submission, Round 2
Roan Carneiro vs. Ryo Chonan: Carneiro has been very lackluster compared to his jiu-jitsu credentials in the MMA world while Chonan has been a bit above average in his career. Chonan has some submission abilities, but shouldn't compare to what Carneiro potentially could dish out on the ground. Nonetheless, Chonan holds a 3rd round win over Carneiro at a DEEP event in 2005. Tough call, but I'll take Chonan by some kind of miracle. Chonan via decision
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Matt Brown: Hyun Kim is coming out to a trance remix of “Heaven”. It's so terrible that it may scare Brown out of even coming out. Regardless, Kim has some great power, good cardio, and can be a pounding force in the cage. He's very well rounded, and Brown will have some massive problems hanging with him. Hyun Kim via KO, Round 1
Tim Boestch vs. Mike Patt: Potential for an upset? Hard to say, but Boestch's wrestling will be formidable for Patt to get through in order to submit Boestch. Boestch's cardio will also be the x-factor here. If he gases, Patt may have a shot. Nonetheless, I like Boestch here. Good wrestling, solid takedown defense, and he swings for the win. Boestch via TKO, Round 2
MadWorld Preview
Forget Jeopardy. Play the only game you win by being the last man standing. Literally.
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